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THE RACE DEVELOPS PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 18 June 2008
Former Congressman John LeBoutillier
The new spate of Quinnipiac polls from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have rocked the GOP political John LeBoutillierestablishment.
 
Here is the brief overview from Quinnipiac:
 
This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:

Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.
In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.
 
"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Believe me: these results - especially in Florida (thought to be secure for McCain) and Ohio (very winnable for the GOP - especially with Governor Ted Strickland stating he would not accept the Veep slot from Obama) - have shaken the McCain campaign and renewed the fear that an anti-GOP, anti-Bush tsunami is rolling in this fall - and it may take not only McCain along with it but dozens of GOP House and Senate hopefuls, as well.
 
Now, some questions need to be raised:
 
• What can McCain do to reverse this pro-Obama trend?
 
• Is it more anti-GOP - or anti-McCain? Or, to put it another way, could a <i>different</I> GOP candidate do better than McCain?
 
• McCain seems mired at 42% - in these state-by-state polls and in the recent ABC and Gallup national polls. Why can’t he grow above that?
 
• There are still four and 1/2 months to go before Election Day. What events can shake up this race?
 
Some attempts to answer/analyze:
 
John McCain is - technically in the TV era - a disastrous, awful, unattractive, inarticulate, boring, mis-guided and not-too-bright candidate. Period. Plus, he doesn’t want to run the kind of campaign necessary to destroy and thus to defeat Obama. (Witness Mccain’s prohibition of even mentioning Obama’s middle name - Hussein.)
 
McCain as a former POW  is a valuable political biography. But his conflicted personality and ‘inside-the-beltway’ contradictions (he is surrounded by lobbyists after decrying government pork) undermine what could have been a pristine personal story: Mr. POW  Hero Comes to DC and Takes On the Corrupt Establishment.
 
Instead, the story has been turned into: Mr. Principle Becomes A Bush Lackey and A Corporate Suck-Up - Who Switches Positions More Often Than John Kerry.
 
McCain’s overall campaign strategist - Charlie Black - is a smart guy who will maximize all that is possible with such a weak candidate. But he does not have much to work with.
 
There is a built-in resistence to Obama that will still help McCain - or another GOP nominee should McCain not be nominated in September (still a possibility). Obama is at the mid-to-high 40s; a moderate, non-leftist Democrat would today be in the mid-50s and be virtually unbeatable in November.
 
The GOP must show the American voter that Obama is <i>too risky - and too radical</I> to be entrusted with the Oval Office.
 
The problem is that McCain is tied to Bush’s hip, is bad on TV and doesn’t connect with voters.
 
And McCain’s base - the so-called Mainstream Media - is already abandoning him for their real love: Obama.
 
Do you know what is needed? A real conservative GOP candidate to emerge and to challenge not only McCain but also the fact that the media chose our nominee for us.
 
The American people distrust the media.
 
It is too bad both nominees are creations of that media.

The noted conservative, former Congressman John LeBoutillier - author of Harvard Hates America - writes strong - and unique commentary and analysis on all things political. John LeBoutillier is also a regular contributor to Borderfire Report.

You can e-mail John at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

We Invite You To Visit John's Website

John LeBoutillier: Authors Bio and Archives

 

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